Development trend of the hottest transmission and

Transmission and distribution equipment industry market development trend

transformer is a very important part of the power industry. It plays a vital role in all links such as power generation, transmission, distribution, electric energy conversion and electric energy consumption. It is also one of the main components of the electrical industry and occupies a very important position in the national economy

I. Basic Situation of the market development of transmission and distribution equipment industry

(I) analysis of the current situation of market development

transformers are a very important part of the power industry. They play a vital role in all links such as power generation, transmission, distribution, power conversion and power consumption. They are also one of the main components of the electrical industry and occupy a very important position in the national economy. In view of the overall development momentum of China's power transmission and distribution industry, China's transformer industry is also booming. China's transformer market capacity of 70billion yuan is the fundamental factor to attract many capital. In fact, such a large amount has made this market look very dazzling. A senior expert in the transformer industry told the author. Report on investment analysis and prospect prediction of China's smart electricity industry in

transformer is an important equipment for electrical distribution, mainly including transmission transformer running in the main power and distribution transformer running in the terminal. At present, transformer products are divided into high-end transformers, 220 ~ 500 kV transformers, 110 ~ 200 kV transformers and transformers less than 110 kV according to voltage

it can be said that the development of transformer industry is closely related to power construction, and China is currently at the peak of power construction. From the perspective of domestic newly added installed capacity, it can be found that 2001 was a low tide period of newly added installed capacity of electric power, and it began to enter the recovery period in 2003. In 2004, the power construction showed a blowout situation. The installed capacity of power stations approved by the state was 60million kW, but the actual construction started reached 150million kW, which was 2.5 times the national plan. To this end, the State Council issued document No. 32 in December 2004, namely the "emergency notice of the State Council on Approving and transmitting the opinions of the development and Reform Commission on resolutely stopping the disorderly construction of power station projects", to carry out macro-control on the construction of power stations

although the state has strengthened the macro-control of power station construction, the demand expectation for power reflected by the power cut-off and power restriction since 2003 and the fact that China's economy is still growing at a high speed will continue to maintain the trend of rapid growth in the new installed capacity of power in the next few years. Experts predict that the growth rate will gradually slow down after 2007, but there will be no extreme contraction in market demand in 2001. It can be said that China's power construction will still show a rapid development momentum in the next few years. The increase of new installed capacity of electricity will inevitably lead to a substantial increase in the demand for power generation equipment. At present, the proportion of power generation equipment to power transmission and transformation equipment is about 1:12 (about 1:8 ~ 1:9 in the previous two years). According to this proportion, the domestic transformer market capacity is close to 70billion yuan

at present, several groups have been formed in the transformer industry worldwide: zabrosh transformer plant in Ukraine, with an annual production capacity of 100 million KVA; Russia taoriati transformer factory, with an annual production capacity of 40million KVA; ABB has 29 transformer plants with an annual production capacity of 80million ~ 100million KVA; Japanese factories have carried out in-depth demonstration work (Mitsubishi, Toshiba, Hitachi, Fuji) such as regional industrial green transformation, efficient and clean utilization of coal in the industrial field, collaborative disposal of domestic waste and solid waste in cement kilns, comprehensive utilization base of industrial resources, pilot extension of producer responsibility for electrical and electronic products and automotive products. Together, the annual production capacity is 65 million KVA. In general, the supply of transformers is far greater than the demand in the world. Foreign funded companies see that China has such a huge transformer market. At the same time, in view of the fact that the bidding of major projects in China in the future requires the control clauses of cooperative production and localization proportion, and China has preferential tax policies and cheap and skilled employees, they began to come to China in the early 1990s to look for opportunities for gold mining

the latest data shows that since 2007, the overall sales revenue of domestic high-voltage and low-voltage transmission and distribution and control equipment has increased by about 30% year-on-year, and the annual industry revenue has increased by more than 25%. Transformers, high-voltage switches and other electrical main equipment continue to maintain a strong sales momentum. Among them, high-voltage, ultra-high voltage and ultra-high voltage products have the largest gains in electricity investment, and the industrial technical and capital barriers are high. Therefore, the market competition is not particularly fierce. However, due to the low threshold of medium and low voltage products, the competition is becoming increasingly fierce, resulting in poor profit prospects

at present, the cost of power equipment has generally increased, especially for low-voltage transmission and distribution equipment, and materials account for a large proportion of the cost, which has brought great pressure to enterprises. This situation has not changed since 2007. The profitability of power equipment, especially low-voltage transmission and distribution equipment, is greatly affected. If the cost pressure from materials cannot be transferred to downstream enterprises, it will still face an embarrassing situation of unfavorable income growth in the future. Fortunately, since 2006, the loss areas of transformer, switch, capacitor, power electronic components and other industries have gradually narrowed. In 2008, the power transmission and distribution industry still maintained a high industry prosperity. Due to the impact of natural disasters such as snow disasters and earthquakes, the increased electricity investment amount and the original "Eleventh Five Year Plan" investment plan are enough to support the domestic high-voltage and low-voltage power transmission and distribution industry prosperity until after 2010

(II) analysis of market characteristics

with the sustained, healthy and rapid development of China's economy and the sustained and rapid growth of power demand and investment, the market prospect of China's transmission and distribution industry is still promising. The development of electricity has injected a strong impetus into the development of the entire transmission and distribution equipment industry. At present, China's annual procurement of transmission and distribution equipment accounts for 32% of the world, and has become the most valuable target market of its peers in the world

in the power transmission and transformation equipment manufacturing industry, multinational companies represented by ABB, Siemens, etc. almost without exception regard the Chinese market as the most important part of their globalization strategy, and strive to compete for China's power equipment cake. In recent years, the market demand for complete sets of high and low voltage distribution equipment in China has increased year by year, which has greatly stimulated the development of this industry. The manufacturers of complete sets of high and low voltage equipment in China have increased significantly, and the renovation speed of products has accelerated, with an increase in varieties; Moreover, the standards of products are gradually approaching the international standards, the technical performance has been significantly improved, and the processing technology has been significantly improved. But at the same time, the variety and performance of domestic high-voltage and low-voltage transmission and distribution equipment are far from meeting the market demand. On the one hand, the competition between several types of products is very fierce, on the other hand, some products cannot be produced. In particular, there is still a certain gap compared with the international advanced level in terms of product development with independent intellectual property rights, as well as product quality and reliability

(III). Market technology development status

UHV equipment should be fully self-developed and domestically produced. At present, the clear policy is that foreign capital and its joint ventures are not allowed to participate in the development and bidding of equipment, except that some key technologies can be supported by foreign parties. In this way, state-owned leading enterprises with obvious technological advantages in the high-voltage field will share more shares. Transformer manufacturers TBEA, Tianwei baobian and Xi'an transformer factory have the design and manufacturing capacity of UHV transformers, and can achieve the goal of localization supply. Combined with the research and development of transformers and considering the particularity of reactor magnetic circuit design, there are no obstacles that are difficult to overcome for the three manufacturers to manufacture 1000 kV fixed shunt reactors. Shengao, Xikai and Pinggao electric, the switchgear manufacturers, have successively introduced foreign SF6 switch and GIS manufacturing technology since the 1970s and 1980s, and have formed a batch production capacity of 500 kV GIS and AIS

foreign funded enterprises in the primary equipment industry of power transmission and transformation have obvious competitive advantages due to advanced technology. The market of high-voltage products, especially 550kV high-end products, is basically shared by foreign-funded enterprises and domestic leaders. However, the technical strength of domestic leading enterprises has been continuously improved, and the market share has gradually increased

with the rapid development of electric power in China, the transformer manufacturing industry has also made considerable progress. In 2006, the total output value of the transformer manufacturing industry has reached 120.82 billion yuan, the number of Enterprises above Designated Size in the transformer manufacturing industry is 1246, the total sales revenue is 116.899 billion yuan, and the profit is 6.241 billion yuan. It continued to maintain a high momentum of development

for a long time, China's transformer market has been in the situation of low price competition. Before 1995, there were only more than 100 transformer enterprises in the country. When the two reforms were carried out in 2000, there were more than 400 domestic transformer enterprises, and by the end of 2006, the whole industry had grown to more than 1200. Competition is becoming increasingly fierce, enterprises are competing to hold down prices, and the production capacity of medium and low-grade transformers is seriously surplus. In the overall environment of high-speed development of the industry, the leader of high and low voltage transmission and distribution industry has obvious advantages in market competition due to its large market share and strong R & D ability. Moreover, due to the requirements of the state for the localization rate of equipment, the competitive pressure from foreign-funded advantageous enterprises is weakened, and some market space is given to domestic advantageous enterprises to a certain extent. We believe that industry leaders will benefit a lot

1.750 kV AC transmission technology. The state has decided to build 750 kV power above 330 kV in the northwest, and has listed the Guanting Lanzhou East 750 kV power transmission and transformation project as a national demonstration project. The construction content of the project includes 157 km of 750 kV line and two 750 kV substations in Guanting and East Lanzhou, with capacity of 1.5 million KVA respectively. For the first batch of localization projects, transformers and reactors have signed contracts with Baoding, Xi'an and Hengyang companies. Subsequent projects, such as the 750 kV power transmission and transformation project from Hami, Xinjiang to Gannan and Qinghai, have been carrying out feasibility studies. It is estimated that by 2020, a 750 kV backbone covering Lanzhou, Baiyin, Guanzhong, Yinchuan and Xining load centers and extending to Hami, Xinjiang will be initially formed. It is preliminarily estimated that 3000 km ~ 5500 km of 750 kV transmission lines and about 20 million KVA of substation capacity will be built

2. DC transmission project. Taking the Three Gorges power transmission and transformation project and the South West East power transmission project as an opportunity, there will be six DC transmission projects during the Tenth Five Year Plan period, with a total length of 4800 kilometers and a transmission capacity of 12.36 million KW. The DC transmission projects planned to be constructed during the 11th Five Year Plan period include the Three Gorges Right Bank to Shanghai Liantang DC project; Deyang, Sichuan Northwest Baoji DC project; Guizhou Xingren Huizhou DC project; The DC transmission project from Yinnan in Northwest China to East Tianjin in North China. From 2011 to 2020, there will be about 11 DC projects preliminarily planned and constructed, and the transmission capacity will be about 37million kW. In short, by 2020, China will have 22 DC transmission projects, with a total capacity of more than 60million kW

the construction of large-scale DC projects requires the equipment supply to realize autonomy and localization as soon as possible. On the basis of the introduction of several DC technologies and digestion and absorption, we should gradually achieve independent consulting and research, independent design and complete sets, independent manufacturing and supply, independent construction and commissioning, and actively do a good job in the preliminary work of higher-level voltage DC equipment manufacturing. At present, the focus should be on the Lingbao back-to-back demonstration project and the construction of the DC project on the right bank of the Three Gorges